Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 29.519972 32.850530 36.664311 41.417870 47.277700 54.397697 63.924311
2025-06-15 24.586082 28.727542 33.895352 41.034231 51.033136 65.257017 88.663919
2025-06-22 21.479027 25.976420 31.951156 40.894133 54.853051 77.903717 125.586213
2025-06-29 19.097980 23.664465 30.011723 40.109752 57.325358 89.831821 175.542232
2025-07-06 18.055110 22.949327 30.089982 42.255223 65.312426 117.394141 323.492022
2025-07-13 16.642324 21.487828 28.775526 41.758728 68.244644 136.981518 550.865191
2025-07-20 15.645559 20.500712 28.017479 42.010480 72.815496 166.555865 1316.611539
2025-07-27 14.835072 19.693948 27.414413 42.382389 77.868370 206.324447 9221.250543
2025-08-03 14.053302 18.847134 26.622067 42.200028 81.531302 249.570340 NaN
2025-08-10 13.333331 18.030178 25.776973 41.732365 84.289254 298.053020 NaN
2025-08-17 12.791073 17.450496 25.276022 41.889477 89.074447 381.695458 NaN
2025-08-24 12.254394 16.836250 24.644013 41.635318 92.541242 480.980581 NaN
2025-08-31 11.732750 16.220463 23.967651 41.210750 95.535688 615.820525 NaN
2025-09-07 11.257819 15.652309 23.329009 40.775550 98.459067 813.782372 NaN
2025-09-14 10.857333 15.184021 22.835854 40.612600 102.565621 1190.818053 NaN
2025-09-21 10.423876 14.633228 22.137508 39.826505 103.723624 1614.445678 NaN
2025-09-28 10.325243 14.651041 22.541199 41.941553 120.130256 10439.410120 NaN
2025-10-05 9.977983 14.212681 22.000544 41.448835 123.228672 170117.786780 NaN
2025-10-12 9.725049 13.926544 21.742895 41.696498 131.002189 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.500007 13.677075 21.538551 42.063370 140.254639 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.244304 13.359039 21.166952 41.883054 146.044819 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.982708 13.018017 20.723114 41.421046 149.676180 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 8.785709 12.785339 20.492142 41.576191 158.694405 NaN NaN